IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON THE FREQUENCY AND SEVERITY OF PUBLIC HEALTH EMERGENCIES IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Climate change has emerged as a critical driver of public health emergencies, particularly in low- and middle-income countries with high vulnerability and limited adaptive capacity. This study examines the impact of climate change on the frequency and severity of public health emergencies in Nigeria, a country characterized by diverse climatic zones and recurrent climate-related hazards. Using a mixed-methods explanatory sequential design, the study combined quantitative analysis of secondary data spanning 2008–2022 with qualitative insights from key stakeholders across six Nigerian states representing northern, central, and southern ecological zones. Quantitative data were drawn from disease surveillance reports, meteorological records, and hospital and emergency management databases, and were analyzed using time-series, correlation, and regression techniques. Qualitative data were obtained through interviews and focus group discussions with public health officials, disaster managers, meteorological experts, and community leaders. Findings reveal significant increases in temperature, rainfall variability, and extreme weather events, alongside a steady rise in climate-related public health emergencies, including cholera outbreaks, malaria surges, heat-related illnesses, and flood-associated infections. Statistical analyses demonstrate strong positive associations between temperature anomalies, extreme rainfall events, and both the frequency and severity of public health emergencies. Qualitative findings highlight preparedness gaps, limited early warning systems, and heightened community vulnerability as key factors amplifying climate-related health impacts. The study concludes that climate change is a significant and escalating determinant of public health emergencies in Nigeria, mediated by socioeconomic vulnerability and health system capacity. Integrating climate information into health planning, strengthening surveillance and response systems, and adopting region-specific adaptation strategies are essential to reduce future health risks and build climate-resilient health systems.