ETHNIC PROFILING AND NATIONAL COHESION: INVESTIGATING THE ROLE OF TRIBAL POLITICS IN STATE FRAGILITY IN NIGERIA

Abstract

Ethnic diversity characterizes many postcolonial states, yet its politicization continues to challenge national cohesion and governance in the Global South. This study investigates the relationship between ethnic profiling, tribal politics, and state fragility in Nigeria, arguing that tribal politics constitutes the critical mechanism through which identity-based exclusion undermines national cohesion and institutional stability. Drawing on Identity Politics Theory, Social Exclusion Theory, and Fragile State Theory, the study employs a qualitative-dominant analytical design based on systematic secondary data analysis. Peer-reviewed literature, survey reports, governance assessments, and conflict datasets are synthesized using thematic and trend analysis to identify empirical patterns linking ethnic profiling to governance outcomes. The findings reveal that ethnic profiling in Nigeria is institutionalized through differentiated citizenship regimes, ethnicised political mobilization, and exclusionary governance practices. These dynamics reinforce tribal politics, weaken national cohesion, erode trust in state institutions, and coincide with key indicators of state fragility, including recurrent communal conflict, uneven service delivery, and declining institutional legitimacy. Comparative analysis situates Nigeria within broader Global South patterns, demonstrating that state fragility is not an inevitable outcome of ethnic diversity but a consequence of how identity is managed through political and institutional arrangements. The study contributes to scholarship by explicitly linking everyday practices of ethnic profiling to macro-level fragility through a clear conceptual model. Policy implications emphasize the need for inclusive citizenship regimes, governance reforms that reduce identity-based political incentives, and nation-building strategies that strengthen civic identity. These findings have relevance for Nigeria and other multi-ethnic states seeking to build resilient, cohesive, and development-oriented governance systems.